The total has two different drivers
An October State Department inspector-general audit modeled $422,705,500 in potential fiscal-year 2026 increases to agencies’ International Cooperative Administrative Support Services invoices after USAID’s withdrawal and other budget changes.
The audit’s table separates $237,121,473 tied to USAID’s lost contribution from $185,584,027 in other ICASS budget increases. The second component is 43.9% of the total; the USAID component is 56.1%.
| Component | Amount | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Lost USAID contribution | $237,121,473 | 56.1% |
| Other ICASS budget growth | $185,584,027 | 43.9% |
| Total | $422,705,500 | 100% |
State carries most of the modeled increase
The State Department’s modeled share is $325,177,079, or 76.9% of the total. Other agencies collectively account for $97,528,421.
These are projected invoice effects built from budget targets and assumptions. They are not audited invoices paid, realized losses or proof that USAID’s closure alone caused $422.7 million in new spending.
State and the inspector general disagree about the fix
State’s September 21 response says the financial issues were materially resolved by May and argues that shared-service costs were reallocated rather than newly created. The inspector general acknowledges a $176 million reduction from initial 2026 targets but says final targets still exceeded 2025 by $185.6 million and questions reliance on carryover funds and higher customer invoices.
All four recommendations are listed open/resolved. In this usage, resolved means the planned action is acceptable for follow-up; it does not mean implementation is closed.
Method and limits
This newsroom recomputed the table shares and separated the USAID component from unrelated budget growth. The audit used a risk-based survey rather than a census of every post, so its operational findings should not be generalized beyond the reviewed evidence.
The original contribution is the decomposition: describing the full modeled increase as a direct consequence of USAID’s withdrawal would erase nearly 44% of the audit’s own explanation.