A small group carries most of the modeled burden
What’s the Scoop With Broach added the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s mean cost estimates for nontyphoidal Salmonella, Campylobacter, Toxoplasma gondii, Listeria monocytogenes and norovirus. Together they total $41.11 billion—55.0% of the $74.72 billion annual foodborne-illness estimate.
Salmonella and Campylobacter alone account for $28.45 billion. The concentration matters for prevention priorities, but the dollar figures are modeled economic burden, not federal spending or a bill paid by one agency.
| Pathogen | Estimated cases | Total cost | Mean cost per case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nontyphoidal Salmonella | 1,027,561 | $17.127B | $16,668 |
| Campylobacter | 845,024 | $11.327B | $13,405 |
| Toxoplasma gondii | 86,753 | $5.719B | $65,926 |
| Listeria monocytogenes | 1,583 | $3.964B | $2.504M |
| Norovirus | 5,461,731 | $2.968B | $543 |
Case counts and costs point in different directions
USDA estimates that illnesses from 31 known major pathogens account for about 9.39 million cases—19.6% of the total—but $44.74 billion, or 59.9% of total cost. Other foodborne gastroenteritis accounts for about 38.39 million cases and $29.97 billion.
The mean cost works out to $4,766 for a known-pathogen case and $781 for unspecified gastroenteritis, a ratio of about 6.1 to 1. Severity, hospitalization, chronic outcomes and mortality—not just frequency—drive the difference.
The biggest limitation is the age of the incidence base
USDA’s 2025 methodology update uses improved disease and cost modeling, but it still builds on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention incidence estimates published in 2011 because those were the most recent comprehensive estimates covering all 31 pathogens and unspecified agents when the product was developed.
USDA warns against treating differences from older versions as pure changes in disease burden because coverage and methods changed. The estimates also use 2023 dollars and include willingness-to-pay values for preventing death, not only medical bills and lost wages.
Method
The five-pathogen total was calculated from USDA’s displayed mean total-cost estimates and divided by the agency’s $74.7161 billion total. Known-pathogen shares were calculated from the agency’s case and cost totals. Results were rounded after calculation.
No claim is made that every illness was diagnosed or reported. USDA explicitly says most foodborne illness is relatively mild and never linked to a specific pathogen.