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A Kern-area race with national consequences
BAKERSFIELD, Calif. — Republican Rep. David Valadao is defending California's 22nd Congressional District against Democratic challenger Randy Villegas in a contest that could help decide control of the U.S. House. The district reaches through parts of Kern, Kings and Tulare counties and includes a large share of Bakersfield.
The Associated Press reported that two-thirds of the district's voters are Hispanic. AP-NORC polling cited in the report found President Donald Trump's approval among Hispanic adults fell 18 percentage points between March 2025 and July 2026, compared with a nine-point decline among adults overall. National movement does not establish how CA-22 will vote, but it explains why both parties are treating the district as a test of Latino political loyalty.
Valadao has repeatedly survived difficult political conditions by emphasizing agriculture, water and a willingness to separate himself from party leaders. He voted to impeach Trump after the January 6 attack, did not support him in 2016 and declined to tell AP how he voted in 2024. His current campaign says he puts constituents ahead of party; voters must compare that message with his record on the bills now affecting the district.
Read the source: Associated Press: Valadao faces a new test as Latino voters sour on Trump ↗
Healthcare claims require both numbers and attribution
Villegas has made Valadao's vote for Trump's 2025 domestic-policy law a central argument. The law combined about $4.5 trillion in tax reductions with more than $1 trillion in decade-long reductions to federal healthcare and food-assistance spending, including new work requirements and costs shifted to states, according to the AP account.
Minority staff of Congress's Joint Economic Committee estimated that as many as 57,000 people in CA-22 could lose healthcare coverage after the new requirements take effect. That is a projection produced by Democratic congressional staff, not a count of residents who have already lost coverage. Valadao told AP that estimates of this kind are overstated.
The district nevertheless has unusually high Medicaid participation. CalMatters reported earlier this year that approximately 527,000 residents—about 64% of the district—were enrolled in Medi-Cal, the highest rate in any Republican-held House seat. That enrollment figure explains the scale of the policy stakes without proving the precise future loss claimed by either campaign.
Affordability is testing old party habits
AP interviews found voters focused on gas, groceries, fertilizer and medical costs. One Republican who previously supported Valadao remained undecided; another Republican voter said she planned to support Villegas because of prices and concern about healthcare reductions. Other voters continued to back Valadao because of distrust of Democrats or his local roots.
Those interviews illustrate competing concerns, but they are not a scientific poll. A district with Democratic registration advantages can still elect a Republican, as Valadao's history shows, and a national decline in Trump's approval does not automatically transfer to every down-ballot contest.
Villegas, a professor and school-board trustee endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, supports Medicare for All and argues that no one should have to choose between groceries and medical care. Valadao portrays that agenda as too far left for the Central Valley. Those are campaign positions and attacks; neither description settles what Congress would enact next year.
Read the source: CalMatters: Medi-Cal enrollment and the political stakes in CA-22 ↗
More than $25 million in advertising is already reserved
Republicans have spent or reserved more than $13 million in television and digital advertising through Election Day, while Democrats have booked approximately $12.6 million, according to AdImpact figures reported by AP. Combined, that is more than $25 million and places CA-22 among the country's five most expensive House advertising races.
Reserved airtime is not the same as a final campaign expenditure. Bookings can change, and spending by parties or outside groups should not be described as money controlled by either candidate unless campaign-finance records establish that relationship.
The volume of money makes transparency especially important. Voters should be able to identify who paid for each message, which claims rely on official records and whether an advertisement describes a proposal, a vote or an outcome that has already occurred.
Read the source: Randy Villegas campaign: Candidate positions and statements ↗
What voters should watch before November 3
The strongest next evidence will come from candidate debates, updated campaign-finance disclosures, independently tested district polling and changes in healthcare implementation. Voters can also compare Valadao's roll-call record with Villegas's specific proposals instead of relying on labels such as independent, socialist or moderate.
Control of the House could turn on a small number of competitive districts. That national consequence makes CA-22 valuable to both parties, but it does not reduce Kern-area residents to a demographic strategy. Their immediate questions concern medical care, household prices, farm work, water and whether either candidate will be accountable after the advertisements stop.
The featured image is an authentic 2020 official congressional portrait of Valadao by Ike Hayman and House Creative Services. It is in the public domain. It does not depict Villegas, a 2026 campaign event, the voters interviewed by AP or the current district boundaries.
Read the source: Representative David Valadao: Official congressional website ↗
Sources and further reading
Associated Press: Valadao faces a new test as Latino voters sour on Trump ↗
Joint Economic Committee minority staff: Estimated district effects of federal healthcare changes ↗
CalMatters: Medi-Cal enrollment and the political stakes in CA-22 ↗
Randy Villegas campaign: Candidate positions and statements ↗
Representative David Valadao: Official congressional website ↗
Wikimedia Commons: Valadao official portrait and public-domain status ↗